With information from Rede Covida

The “CoVida Network – Science, Information and Solidarity” released on Friday (3) the first CoVida Bulletin – Covid-19 pandemic monitoring in Brazil, with emphasis on the disease situation in Bahia. According to the document, the number of cases across the state is expected to exceed 800 by April 8.

Across the country, the estimate is that the number will reach more than 21 thousand cases and more than 500 deaths (if the mortality rate in the country remains at current levels) in the same projected period.

The document also provides suggestions for coping, such as increases in beds, respirators, as well as indications of measures such as income transfer to the most vulnerable population. The newsletter will be made available weekly on the CoVida Network website (covid19br.org ) and partner institutions.

To access the full document, click here .

Modeling

To predict the number of cases, the modeling team at Rede CoVida uses the SIR (Susceptible, Infected and Recovered) model, considered appropriate for the onset of epidemics. This model suggests that everyone in a population group starts out uninfected (which fits the reality of SARS-CoV-2, as it is a new virus and people do not have antibodies) and that each population group has a reproduction number R0 ( which is the reproductive potential of the disease). It is this potential that will tell how quickly a virus spreads in a group, considering that the mobility of an infected person contributes to the spread of the virus among non-infected people. The reproduction potential of Italy, a country that has drawn attention due to the intensity of the pandemic, is 3, for example. Ceará is 2.56,

The report shows that for the initial phases, as observed in several countries and other epidemics, the effects of restrictions on the movement of people do not appear immediately, especially if such measures are applied late. The “flattening of the curve” effect is only observable over time, followed by the application of tests to track new ones. Therefore, there is still a growth curve that needs to be monitored ”, comments mathematician Juliane Fonseca, researcher at CoVida.

To face SARs-Cov-2 (Covid), the Network calls on using science to enhance the measures. “Mathematical modeling offers a window of opportunity to make predictions about the future of the epidemic in our country, and allows managers to carry out the actions necessary in the present to mitigate its effects”, comments the bioinformat (branches that combine biology and computing) Pablo Ramos , researcher at CoVida.

The CoVida Network

The report is one of the products offered to society by the Network, which already has more than 120 researchers and 30 communication professionals who work on a voluntary basis. The group operates in a home office system and in just over two weeks built a monitoring panel, with current data on confirmed cases in Brazil, by state and municipality, in addition to predictive analyzes for the country until April 25. The Coronavirus panel (covid19br.org) is the result of the work of the data visualization team, coordinated by the statistician Gabriela Borges.

To make all the knowledge produced by the researchers public, a team of communication professionals work to disseminate information, build educational materials, in addition to holding virtual conferences in webinar format. On Saturday, the 28th, researchers from Rede Daiane Machado and Júlia Pescarini gave a class to journalists on basic concepts of epidemiology. And the researcher at Fiocruz in Communication and Health, Igor Sacramento, spoke about the approach of the theme in journalism and on networks. The material is available on the YouTube Channel.

Cooperation and diversity of knowledge are the pillars of the “Covida Network – Science, Information and Solidarity”. Born from an articulation between the Center for Data and Knowledge Integration for Health (Cidacs / Fiocruz Bahia) and the Federal University of Bahia (Ufba), the Network is a multidisciplinary and scientific collaboration project focused on the Covid-19 pandemic and aims to monitoring the pandemic in Brazil, with forecasts of its possible evolution. It also aims at producing syntheses of scientific evidence both to support decision-making by health authorities and to inform the general public.